What the score measures
FEMA's National Risk Index estimates how much damage natural hazards cause in an average year, from hurricanes and floods to earthquakes, wildfires, tornadoes and winter storms. The app uses each state's expected annual loss rate, ranked as a national percentile. A lower score means less expected loss relative to the rest of the country.
It is a measure of expected cost, not a forecast. A state with a low score can still have a bad year, and a state with a high score can go years without a major event. What the score is good for is comparison: it tells you which places tend to lose the most to weather and the ground beneath them, year after year.
The ten states with the lowest risk
| State | Risk score, of the fifty states | Main hazards |
|---|---|---|
| Maryland | lowest | Hurricanes, flooding |
| Michigan | 2nd lowest | Severe winter storms |
| Wisconsin | 3rd lowest | Severe winter storms |
| New York | 4th lowest | Winter storms, hurricanes, flooding |
| Ohio | 5th lowest | Tornadoes, winter storms |
| Rhode Island | 6th lowest | Hurricanes, flooding |
| Massachusetts | 7th lowest | Severe winter storms |
| Virginia | 8th lowest | Hurricanes, flooding |
| Maine | 9th lowest | Severe winter storms |
| Pennsylvania | 10th lowest | Winter storms, flooding |
Risk score: FEMA National Risk Index, expected annual loss rate as a national percentile, ranked lowest first. Main hazards: the hazards the app lists for each state.
The low end of the list is mostly the Great Lakes, the Mid-Atlantic and New England. Severe winter storms are the most common listed hazard there, and none of these states lists wildfire or earthquake. Maryland has the lowest score in the country even though hurricanes and flooding are its main listed hazards, a reminder that a listed hazard is not the same as a large expected loss.
The ten states with the highest risk
| State | Risk score, of the fifty states | Main hazards |
|---|---|---|
| Hawaii | highest | Hurricanes, earthquakes |
| California | 2nd highest | Earthquakes, wildfires, flooding |
| West Virginia | 3rd highest | Flooding |
| Florida | 4th highest | Hurricanes, flooding |
| Louisiana | 5th highest | Hurricanes, flooding |
| Connecticut | 6th highest | Winter storms, flooding |
| Washington | 7th highest | Wildfires, earthquakes |
| Alaska | 8th highest | Earthquakes, winter storms |
| Oregon | 9th highest | Wildfires, earthquakes |
| Alabama | 10th highest | Tornadoes, hurricanes |
The top of the list is mostly the Pacific coast, the Gulf and the islands. Earthquakes and wildfires push the West Coast up, and hurricanes and flooding do the same along the Gulf. West Virginia is the surprise: it has no coastline, and flooding is its one listed hazard, yet it has the 3rd highest score.
Where the popular destinations land
- Florida has the 4th highest risk score. For anyone moving there, hurricane and flood exposure is the line to check first, along with what insurance costs at the address.
- Texas has the 24th highest score, with hurricanes, tornadoes and flooding all listed. The coast and the interior face very different hazards.
- Tennessee has the 22nd lowest score, with tornadoes as its main listed hazard.
- North Carolina has the 23rd highest score and South Carolina the 17th highest. Both list hurricanes and tornadoes.
- Arizona has the 15th highest score and Colorado the 18th highest. Wildfire is the main listed hazard in both.
- Idaho has the 16th lowest score, lower than any of the other destinations here, with wildfire as its main listed hazard.
How to use this before you move
- Treat the state score as a starting point. Risk changes a lot from county to county: a coastal county and an inland one in the same state can sit at opposite ends of the index. The app shows county-level risk once you pick a place.
- Look up the flood zone and wildfire risk at the exact address before you sign a lease or make an offer.
- Get an insurance quote early. In high-risk areas, home insurance and flood cover can change the monthly cost of a move more than the rent or mortgage difference does.
- Weigh it against what else you want. A lower score is worth something, but so are rent, taxes, work and being near the people you care about. The lowest natural-disaster risk ranking lists every state.
This guide gives information to help you decide. It is not insurance or safety advice. Hazard exposure depends on the exact location, and FEMA's estimates are averages over many years.