How the ranking works
The figures are NOAA Climate Normals for 1991 to 2020: the average afternoon high from December through February at one city in each state, the same city the app uses by default. That makes this a ranking of cities standing in for their states, not a statewide average. A state as long as Florida or as tall as California covers very different winters, so treat the city as the starting point. The exact temperatures are on the warmest winters ranking.
The ten warmest winters
| State | City measured | Winter afternoon high, of the fifty states | Summer afternoon high, of the fifty states |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hawaii | Honolulu | highest | 21st highest |
| Florida | Orlando | 2nd highest | 9th highest |
| Arizona | Phoenix | 3rd highest | highest |
| California | Los Angeles | 3rd highest | 9th lowest |
| Louisiana | New Orleans | 5th highest | 9th highest |
| Mississippi | Jackson | 6th highest | 9th highest |
| Nevada | Las Vegas | 7th highest | 2nd highest |
| South Carolina | Columbia | 7th highest | 9th highest |
| Texas | Dallas | 9th highest | 3rd highest |
| Alabama | Birmingham | 10th highest | 14th highest |
Average afternoon highs at the city shown, from NOAA Climate Normals. States with the same reading share a rank.
The list is Hawaii, then the southern band of the country from Florida and the Gulf Coast across to the desert Southwest and California. At the far end, North Dakota, Alaska, Minnesota, South Dakota and Vermont have the five coldest winter afternoons.
The catch is summer
Arizona, Nevada and Texas have the three hottest summer afternoons of the fifty states, and all three are in the warm-winter ten. California is the only state of the ten whose summers fall in the milder half of the country: Los Angeles is 3rd highest in winter and 9th lowest in summer. Hawaii is next, with a summer high 21st highest.
So the real trade is this: you stop paying for one bad season and start paying for another. A desert summer keeps you indoors the way a northern winter does. Afternoon highs also leave out humidity, which is much of what makes a Gulf Coast summer hard. If you can, visit in the worst month, not the best one. The scouting trip guide covers how.
Warm winters and storm risk
Four of the five states with the highest natural-disaster risk on FEMA's National Risk Index are in the warm-winter ten: Hawaii, California, Florida and Louisiana. The hazards differ, from hurricanes and flooding to earthquakes and wildfires, but each state has a real expected yearly loss, and that cost reaches you through insurance and repairs even in a year with no storm.
Nevada has the lowest risk of the ten, at 19th lowest in the country, and Texas is next at 24th highest. Our natural disaster risk guide has the fuller picture.
What the warmth costs
| State | Two-bedroom rent, per month | Everyday costs, of the fifty states | State and local tax estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hawaii | $2,467 | highest | 7.3% |
| Florida | $1,962 | 17th highest | 4.7% |
| Arizona | $1,616 | 19th highest | 5.1% |
| California | $2,632 | 5th highest | 9.5% |
| Louisiana | $1,161 | 8th lowest | 5.4% |
| Mississippi | $1,087 | 11th lowest | 5.6% |
| Nevada | $1,672 | 22nd lowest | 3.9% |
| South Carolina | $1,391 | 15th lowest | 5% |
| Texas | $1,488 | 15th lowest | 6.2% |
| Alabama | $1,170 | 12th lowest | 7.3% |
Tax estimate: state and local income, property and sales tax as a share of the U.S. median household income, for a married couple filing jointly.
The range is wide. Mississippi has the lowest rent of the ten and California the highest in the country, $18,540 a year apart for a two-bedroom. Hawaii has the highest everyday costs of any state. Taxes vary as well: Nevada is lowest of the ten at 3.9%, and California is highest at 9.5%.
Just outside the top ten
Two states worth a look sit one step down the list. Georgia is 11th highest for winter warmth with disaster risk 12th lowest, well below every state in the ten. North Carolina is 12th highest, with rent of $1,441 a month. Neither has the deep warmth of Florida, but both escape the worst of the northern winter without the hottest summers on this list.
Deciding if a warm state is right for you
- Rank the seasons honestly. Would you rather be stuck inside in July or in January?
- Check the specific city. Elevation and distance from the coast can matter more than the state line.
- Price the risk. Ask for an insurance quote on a real address before you commit.
- Compare the money, not just the weather, with a side-by-side state comparison.
The free quiz asks what climate you want along with everything else, then ranks all fifty states, so warmth gets weighed against cost, safety and jobs instead of beating them by default. The Move Decision Kit, $39 once, runs your own income and household through a chosen state to show what the move would do to your money.
Figures are NOAA Climate Normals, FEMA's National Risk Index, HUD Fair Market Rents, BEA Regional Price Parities and Locustep's household tax estimate. Your own experience depends on the city, the neighborhood and the year.